The Trajectories of Job Seekers with Activity : Exit to Permanent Contract or Locking-in Effects ?

The development of atypical forms of employment makes increasingly blurred the boundaries between employment and unemployment, and questions the French system of job seeker allowance, based primarily on a model of long term contract and full-time job. The subsidized temporary employment -“Reduced Activity”(RA) - is part of that progression. The proportion of job seekers with activity has tripled since the mid-1990s, and has grown by over 80% since the crisis opened in 2008. The RA refers not only to an activity carried out by the job seeker while being registered on the list of job center, but also the possibility for job seekers compensated to cumulate their income from activity with their allowance. It is therefore in line with employment policies that respond to an activation logic.

This paper presents a quantitative and qualitative analysis to highlight the effects of the different characteristics of jobseekers on their path. For this, we have built a typology of job seekers’trajectories who have resorted to a RA from a method of "optimal matching". We mobilize a panel data from the FH-D3 from the French Job Center  and the DPAE (declaration prior to hiring which is mandatory for employers). This longitudinal analysis allows to highlight the types of trajectory groups in terms of using more or less sustainable RA and exit to a job also more or less sustainable. Besides we estimate the effect of individual characteristics belonging to these trajectories. This analysis is coupled with our field survey that sheds light on the different trajectories with the biographical path of jobseekers according to their characteristics. Thus we have identified six different types of trajectories for jobseekers having resorted to RA: (1) a sustainable trajectory marked by short RA; (2) a trajectory marked by sustainable return in a permanent job; (3) a path marked by attrition; (4) a sustainable trajectory marked by long RA; (5) an exit path to short term contract and temporary work; (6) a sustainable path like unemployed without any job. This analysis shows that only 8% of job seekers are part of the paths marked by a sustained exit to a permanent contract. While 25% of them belong to the trajectories marked by sustainable RA, 30% have trajectories characterized by a sustainable situation without job like unemployed. Our results show that seniors and women are more likely to be sustainably in RA. Being more graduate or executive increases the probability to enroll in a trajectory marked by a return to sustainable employment. In addition, the cause of registration has an impact on belonging to one of the types of trajectories. Job seekers who registered following a dismissal (economic or other) have more risks of being in a trajectory characterized by RA. The biographical path of the interviewed job seekers highlight the specific characteristics of those who practiced sustainably RA. These interviews account for the complexity of factors that influence the path of jobseekers.